06:29
Dangerous severe weather threat for the Plains on Saturday stretches east on Sunday
Severe thunderstorms could produce violent, long-tracked tornadoes in parts of Oklahoma and southern Kansas Saturday before the severe weather threat shifts into the east on Sunday.
A dangerous severe weather pattern is building for the Memorial Day weekend, threatening millions with violent tornadoes and extreme wind and hail in the Plains on Saturday. The severe weather threat will then shift east into the Mississippi, Ohio and Tennessee valleys on Sunday.
‘Strong to violent tornadoes' possible Saturday
The latest forecast models still indicate a very threatening situation for the Central Plains late Saturday into Saturday night as a storm system ejects off the Rockies and into the Plains.
NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has placed a swath of Oklahoma and southern Kansas in a Level 4 of 5 on their severe weather risk scale, including Oklahoma City and Tulsa in Oklahoma, and Wichita in Kansas.
"Strong thunderstorms are very likely," said FOX Weather Meteorologist Jane Minar. "And the risk for damaging winds, tornadoes, torrential rains, and even some very large hail stones — everything is in the mix today."
While much of Saturday morning and early afternoon will be quiet, supercell thunderstorms are forecast to erupt in the late afternoon in western Oklahoma. These thunderstorms will initially present a large baseball-to-softball-sized hail danger with isolated severe wind gusts over 60 mph, the SPC says.
But storms will find much more potent atmospheric conditions by early Saturday evening in the western half of Oklahoma, rapidly increasing the threats for long-lived, intense tornadoes along with the continuing threat of massive hail and extreme wind gusts.
"By the time we get to the dinner hour, that’s when we need to pay close attention to the forecast," Minar said. "Because these storms, as they come together in and after the dinner hour, they mean business. And we’re talking very violent storms in the late overnight. "
SPC forecasters wrote in their Saturday morning forecast discussion they have been considering upgrading this area to a Level 5 "extreme" threat but are awaiting more data.
These critical severe weather conditions spread into southern Kansas around dusk Saturday, presenting similar strong to violent tornado threats for those areas, including Wichita.
"Long-tracked and violent tornadoes will be possible as the low-level jet increases during the evening," the SPC said in their Friday midday forecast discussion.
Air Force officials at McConnell Air Force base in Wichita say they are busy Saturday moving aircraft to other bases out of the severe weather threat zone.
As the storms progress Saturday night, the threat is expected to shift from discrete individual tornadic supercells to a dangerous squall line that would instead create corridors of "extreme wind damage" as they proceed into eastern Kansas and western Missouri.
Gusts could reach well over 75 mph. Kansas City and Springfield, Missouri are both in a Level 3 severe weather threat zone primarily for damaging wind and hail threats, but tornadoes will still be possible along the line.
INDY 500 FORECAST: SEVERE WEATHER THREATENS ICONIC RACE SUNDAY
Widespread severe weather outbreak possible Sunday
On Sunday, severe thunderstorms are expected to move northeast and impact the Mississippi, Tennessee and Ohio valleys.
Unlike Saturday, when development chances were prime during the evening, Sunday will feature showers and thunderstorms throughout the day that could impact events.
"This storm system is going to bring its slow movement," said FOX Weather Meteorologist Jane Minar. "A cold front is going to trigger up those storms as we get into the afternoon, with dew points well into the 70s and daytime heating, and we have a threat for some pretty serious storms, damaging winds, an isolated tornado and flooding concerns."
The SPC has highlighted over 15 million in communities such as St. Louis, Nashville, Cincinnati, Springfield, Illinois and Louisville, Kentucky in an early Level 3 out of 5 risk for severe weather. That area also includes Indianapolis, where the iconic Indy 500 is scheduled to race that morning and where organizers are already preparing for the potential of rain. Strong tornadoes, wind gusts over 75 mph and golf ball-sized hail are all possible in the Level 3 risk zone.
But another 27 million are currently in a Level 2 risk of severe weather, including Chicago, Memphis and Kansas City.
Fortunately for travelers, many are already at their destinations by Sunday. However, those who will be traveling on interstates 40, 70, 55 and 65 will want to pay close attention to the forecast.
MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND FORECAST INCLUDES STORMS, HEAT AND RIP CURRENTS
Severe weather threat shifts to mid-Atlantic on Memorial Day
On the holiday itself, there is expected to be a large spread of showers and thunderstorms across much of the eastern third of the nation. Chances for a severe weather outbreak are much decreased than during the previous two days.
Still, the SPC has placed just over 27 million people in the mid-Atlantic in a Level 2 severe weather threat, including Washington, D.C.; Baltimore and Charlotte and Raleigh in North Carolina.
The primary threat to the region will be damaging wind gusts from advancing squall lines, though a few tornadoes can't be ruled out.
