Free NBA Picks & Predictions - Today's Best NBA Bets (2024)

Minnesota’s last 11 games have established a precedent. In five wins, the Under cashes. In six losses, the Over cashes. The Wolves’ undoing this round has been their defense. In the first two rounds, Minnesota posted a 107.6 defensive rating. In the first 3 games of this series, that spiked to 118.5. In Game 4, it returned to 107.5. The defense starts any Minnesota success these days. That was aided by the Mavs losing Dereck Lively II, though it was also harmed by Minnesota’s offense giving Dallas 15 turnovers which led to 30 points. The Wolves’ Game 3 defensive success should be replicable, and if it is done again, then it should go hand-in-hand with a Minnesota win.

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Douglas Farmer - Pick Made 21 hrs, 54 min ago.

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In 5 elimination games across the last 3 seasons, preceding Tuesday’s, Towns grabbed 10+ rebounds in all of them, averaging 11.4 boards. With Rudy Gobert alongside him for four of those, Towns still grabbed 11+ rebounds in each. Disregard Towns finding only 5 boards in Game 4. Four offensive fouls limited both his minutes and his aggression. Towns picked up his fifth foul with 4:59 left in the third quarter, playing only 7:29 the rest of the way. To emphasize how the foul trouble also impacted Towns’s aggression, realize he did not grab a single rebound in that 7:29. If Towns can log 32 minutes without spending most of them worrying about fouling out, he should easily clear this prop.

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Douglas Farmer - Pick Made 14 hrs, 33 min ago.

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Minnesota’s offense hums best when Anthony Edwards attacks the lane. Rudy Gobert has little elsewhere to go, so to avoid having two bigs and their defenders clogging the lane, Towns has to space elsewhere. That is fortuitous, given he is one of the best shooting big men of all time, Game 3’s struggles aside. Towns has hit at least three 3s in five playoff games this year. More notably, remove the last two games (4-of-13) and he has shot 39.1% from deep on 4.9 attempts per game this potstseason. Emphasizing Edwards’s downhill presence — he created 23 scoring chances off drives in each of the last two games — should lead to only more looks for Towns from deep.

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Douglas Farmer - Pick Made 14 hrs, 31 min ago.

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Minnesota spent the last two games emphasizing Anthony Edwards’s downhill abilities to open up the offense. Doing so takes away most potential assists from any Timberwolves not usually in the playmaking role. Between Mike Conley’s usual duties, Kyle Anderson’s increased status as floor general and Edwards’s time driving into the lane, Towns will not be asked to initiate any Minnesota actions. If he racks up three assists for a third time in this series, they will almost all border on incidental.

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Douglas Farmer - Pick Made 14 hrs, 29 min ago.

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Jaden McDaniels may have finished the game with zero potential assists, but when you watch the film, there were plenty of opportunities for him to not only collect potential assists but high-value ones. McDaniels had a drive on the baseline where he fed the ball to Gobert for a dunk, but McDaniels was called for stepping out of bounds. McDaniels also had a 3-on-1 fast break where he gave the ball to Edwards, and it looked like it would be an easy layup for Edwards at the rim, but he messed up his footwork on the deceleration. These are just a couple of examples, but there were several other instances where McDaniels took a couple of dribbles into the lane, and I fully expected a dump-off pass, but he just stopped and popped the mid-range jumper. For me, the zero potential assists don't paint the whole picture of what was possible with this bet.McDaniels is projected to drop 1.8 dimes against the Mavericks.

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Jon Metler - Pick Made 6 hrs, 26 min ago.

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Although Dereck Lively is tagged as questionable, I personally don't believe he is playing in Game 5. This means the Dallas Mavericks will go through spurts where Daniel Gafford is on the bench and Maxi Kleber is playing the 5. Karl-Anthony Towns has shown he can get downhill and put pressure on the rim, but Kleber isn't a rim protector like Gafford or Lively, and his defense on Towns is to take a charge. Kleber accomplished this in Game 4, and they are silly fouls because the lob to the dunker's spot is wide open on these drives. The Timberwolves' coaching staff should put that on film for Towns, and we could see him make a couple of extra passes on his drives.Towns is projected to have 3.2 assists on Thursday against the Mavericks.

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Jon Metler - Pick Made 5 hrs, 47 min ago.

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This Under bet isn't a knock on Anthony Edwards by any means. I just think his aggressiveness and the Dallas Mavericks loading up to stop his drives open up the floor for his teammates, especially with Dereck Lively potentially out. You saw Mike Conley able to get in the lane and finish at the rim. Rudy Gobert was able to finish in the paint, and Karl-Anthony Towns was also able to get downhill. With this game moving back to Target Center, you could see more contribution from the other players. I think Edwards is creating that space for them where they can attack the weakened rim protection of the Mavericks. If Edwards can keep all eyes on him, his teammates have an offensive advantage that they can exploit.Edwards is projected to score 27.1 points on Thursday against the Mavericks.

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Jon Metler - Pick Made 5 hrs, 44 min ago.

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